Directions of change in intrinsic case severity across successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves have been inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES: To determine how the intrinsic severity of successively dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants changed over the course of the pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHS GGC) Health Board. All sequenced non-nosocomial adult COVID-19 cases in NHS GGC with relevant SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.177/Alpha, Alpha/Delta, AY.4.2 Delta/non-AY.4.2 Delta, non-AY.4.2 Delta/Omicron, and BA.1 Omicron/BA.2 Omicron) during analysis periods were included. Outcome measures were hospital admission, ICU admission, or death within 28 days of positive COVID-19 test. We report the cumulative odds ratio; the ratio of the odds that an individual experiences a severity event of a given level vs all lower severity levels for the resident and the replacement variant after adjustment. RESULTS: After adjustment for covariates, the cumulative odds ratio was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.08-2.11) for Alpha versus B.1.177, 2.09 (95% CI: 1.42-3.08) for Delta versus Alpha, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.76-1.27) for AY.4.2 Delta versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, 0.49 (95% CI: 0.22-1.06) for Omicron versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.68-1.09) for BA.2 Omicron versus BA.1 Omicron. CONCLUSIONS: The direction of change in intrinsic severity between successively emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants was inconsistent, reminding us that the intrinsic severity of future SARS-CoV-2 variants remains uncertain.

The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased clinical severity of COVID-19 in Scotland: A genomics-based retrospective cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased transmission relative to other variants present at the time of its emergence and several studies have shown an association between Alpha variant infection and increased hospitalisation and 28-day mortality. However, none have addressed the impact on maximum severity of illness in the general population classified by the level of respiratory support required, or death. We aimed to do this. METHODS: In this retrospective multi-centre clinical cohort sub-study of the COG-UK consortium, 1475 samples from Scottish hospitalised and community cases collected between 1st November 2020 and 30th January 2021 were sequenced. We matched sequence data to clinical outcomes as the Alpha variant became dominant in Scotland and modelled the association between Alpha variant infection and severe disease using a 4-point scale of maximum severity by 28 days: 1. no respiratory support, 2. supplemental oxygen, 3. ventilation and 4. death. RESULTS: Our cumulative generalised linear mixed model analyses found evidence (cumulative odds ratio: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.93) of a positive association between increased clinical severity and lineage (Alpha variant versus pre-Alpha variants). CONCLUSIONS: The Alpha variant was associated with more severe clinical disease in the Scottish population than co-circulating lineages.

A framework for real-time monitoring, analysis and adaptive sampling of viral amplicon nanopore sequencing.

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic demonstrates the utility of real-time sequence analysis in monitoring and surveillance of pathogens. However, cost-effective sequencing requires that samples be PCR amplified and multiplexed via barcoding onto a single flow cell, resulting in challenges with maximising and balancing coverage for each sample. To address this, we developed a real-time analysis pipeline to maximise flow cell performance and optimise sequencing time and costs for any amplicon based sequencing. We extended our nanopore analysis platform MinoTour to incorporate ARTIC network bioinformatics analysis pipelines. MinoTour predicts which samples will reach sufficient coverage for downstream analysis and runs the ARTIC networks Medaka pipeline once sufficient coverage has been reached. We show that stopping a viral sequencing run earlier, at the point that sufficient data has become available, has no negative effect on subsequent down-stream analysis. A separate tool, SwordFish, is used to automate adaptive sampling on Nanopore sequencers during the sequencing run. This enables normalisation of coverage both within (amplicons) and between samples (barcodes) on barcoded sequencing runs. We show that this process enriches under-represented samples and amplicons in a library as well as reducing the time taken to obtain complete genomes without affecting the consensus sequence.

Monocyte migration profiles define disease severity in acute COVID-19 and unique features of long COVID.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is associated with a dysregulated immune response but it is unclear how immune dysfunction contributes to the chronic morbidity persisting in many COVID-19 patients during convalescence (long COVID). METHODS: We assessed phenotypical and functional changes of monocytes in COVID-19 patients during hospitalisation and up to 9 months of convalescence following COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus or influenza A. Patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease were included as a positive control for severe, ongoing lung injury. RESULTS: Monocyte alterations in acute COVID-19 patients included aberrant expression of leukocyte migration molecules, continuing into convalescence (n=142) and corresponding with specific symptoms of long COVID. Long COVID patients with unresolved lung injury, indicated by sustained shortness of breath and abnormal chest radiology, were defined by high monocyte expression of C-X-C motif chemokine receptor 6 (CXCR6) (p<0.0001) and adhesion molecule P-selectin glycoprotein ligand 1 (p<0.01), alongside preferential migration of monocytes towards the CXCR6 ligand C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 16 (CXCL16) (p<0.05), which is abundantly expressed in the lung. Monocyte CXCR6 and lung CXCL16 were heightened in patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease (p<0.001), confirming a role for the CXCR6-CXCL16 axis in ongoing lung injury. Conversely, monocytes from long COVID patients with ongoing fatigue exhibited a sustained reduction of the prostaglandin-generating enzyme cyclooxygenase 2 (p<0.01) and CXCR2 expression (p<0.05). These monocyte changes were not present in respiratory syncytial virus or influenza A convalescence. CONCLUSIONS: Our data define unique monocyte signatures that define subgroups of long COVID patients, indicating a key role for monocyte migration in COVID-19 pathophysiology. Targeting these pathways may provide novel therapeutic opportunities in COVID-19 patients with persistent morbidity.

FXR inhibition may protect from SARS-CoV-2 infection by reducing ACE2.

Prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection through the modulation of viral host receptors, such as ACE21, could represent a new chemoprophylactic approach for COVID-19 complementing vaccination2,3. However, the mechanisms controlling ACE2 expression remain elusive. Here, we identify the farnesoid X receptor (FXR) as a direct regulator of ACE2 transcription in multiple COVID19-affected tissues, including the gastrointestinal and respiratory systems. We then use the over-the-counter compound z-guggulsterone (ZGG) and the off-patent drug ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) to reduce FXR signalling and downregulate ACE2 in human lung, cholangiocyte and intestinal organoids and in the corresponding tissues in mice and hamsters. We demonstrate that UDCA-mediated ACE2 downregulation reduces susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro, in vivo and in human lungs and livers perfused ex situ. Furthermore, we illustrate that UDCA reduces ACE2 expression in the nasal epithelium in humans. Finally, we identify a correlation between UDCA treatment and positive clinical outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection using retrospective registry data, and confirm these findings in an independent validation cohort of liver transplant recipients. In conclusion, we identify a novel function of FXR in controlling ACE2 expression and provide evidence that modulation of this pathway could be beneficial for reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection, paving the road for future clinical trials.

Comparison of UK paediatric SARS-CoV-2 admissions across the first and second pandemic waves.

BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that the clinical characteristics of hospitalised children and young people (CYP) with SARS-CoV-2 in the UK second wave (W2) would differ from the first wave (W1) due to the alpha variant (B.1.1.7), school reopening and relaxation of shielding. METHODS: Prospective multicentre observational cohort study of patients <19 years hospitalised in the UK with SARS-CoV-2 between 17/01/20 and 31/01/21. Clinical characteristics were compared between W1 and W2 (W1 = 17/01/20-31/07/20,W2 = 01/08/20-31/01/21). RESULTS: 2044 CYP < 19 years from 187 hospitals. 427/2044 (20.6%) with asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 were excluded from main analysis. 16.0% (248/1548) of symptomatic CYP were admitted to critical care and 0.8% (12/1504) died. 5.6% (91/1617) of symptomatic CYP had Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C). After excluding CYP with MIS-C, patients in W2 had lower Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS, composite vital sign score), lower antibiotic use and less respiratory and cardiovascular support than W1. The proportion of CYP admitted to critical care was unchanged. 58.0% (938/1617) of symptomatic CYP had no reported comorbidity. Patients without co-morbidities were younger (42.4%, 398/938, <1 year), had lower PEWS, shorter length of stay and less respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of increased disease severity in W2 vs W1. A large proportion of hospitalised CYP had no comorbidity. IMPACT: No evidence of increased severity of COVID-19 admissions amongst children and young people (CYP) in the second vs first wave in the UK, despite changes in variant, relaxation of shielding and return to face-to-face schooling. CYP with no comorbidities made up a significant proportion of those admitted. However, they had shorter length of stays and lower treatment requirements than CYP with comorbidities once those with MIS-C were excluded. At least 20% of CYP admitted in this cohort had asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. This paper was presented to SAGE to inform CYP vaccination policy in the UK.

Studying the Long-term Impact of COVID-19 in Kids (SLICK). Healthcare use and costs in children and young people following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection: protocol for an observational study using linked primary and secondary routinely collected healthcare data from England, Scotland and Wales.

INTRODUCTION: SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely causes hospitalisation in children and young people (CYP), but mild or asymptomatic infections are common. Persistent symptoms following infection have been reported in CYP but subsequent healthcare use is unclear. We aim to describe healthcare use in CYP following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify those at risk of ongoing healthcare needs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will use anonymised individual-level, population-scale national data linking demographics, comorbidities, primary and secondary care use and mortality between 1 January 2019 and 1 May 2022. SARS-CoV-2 test data will be linked from 1 January 2020 to 1 May 2022. Analyses will use Trusted Research Environments: OpenSAFELY in England, Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank in Wales and Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 in Scotland (EAVE-II). CYP aged ≥4 and <18 years who underwent SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) testing between 1 January 2020 and 1 May 2021 and those untested CYP will be examined.The primary outcome measure is cumulative healthcare cost over 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 testing, stratified into primary or secondary care, and physical or mental healthcare. We will estimate the burden of healthcare use attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections in the 12 months after testing using a matched cohort study of RT-PCR positive, negative or untested CYP matched on testing date, with adjustment for confounders. We will identify factors associated with higher healthcare needs in the 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection using an unmatched cohort of RT-PCR positive CYP. Multivariable logistic regression and machine learning approaches will identify risk factors for high healthcare use and characterise patterns of healthcare use post infection. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the South-Central Oxford C Health Research Authority Ethics Committee (13/SC/0149). Findings will be preprinted and published in peer-reviewed journals. Analysis code and code lists will be available through public GitHub repositories and OpenCodelists with meta-data via HDR-UK Innovation Gateway.

Further development and feasibility randomised controlled trial of a digital programme for adolescent depression, MoodHwb: study protocol (preprint)

Introduction A digital programme, MoodHwb, was co-designed with young people experiencing or at high risk of depression, parents/carers, and professionals, to provide support for young people with their mood and wellbeing. A preliminary evaluation study provided support for the programme theory and found that MoodHwb was acceptable to use. The present study aims to refine the programme based on user feedback, and to assess the acceptability and feasibility of the updated version and study methods. Methods and analysis Initially, this study will refine MoodHwb with the involvement of young people, including in a pre-trial acceptability phase. This will be followed by a multi-centre feasibility randomised controlled trial comparing MoodHwb plus usual care with a digital information pack plus usual care. Up to 120 young people aged 13-19 years with symptoms of depression and their parents/carers will be recruited through schools, primary mental health services, youth services, charities, and voluntary self-referral in Wales and Scotland. The primary outcomes are the feasibility and acceptability of the MoodHwb programme (including usage, design, and content) and of trial methods (including recruitment and retention rates), assessed two months post-randomisation. Secondary outcomes include potential impact on domains including depression knowledge and stigma, help-seeking, wellbeing and depression and anxiety symptoms measured at two months post-randomisation. Ethics and dissemination The pre-trial acceptability phase was approved by the Cardiff University School of Medicine Research Ethics Committee (REC) and the University of Glasgow College of Medicine, Veterinary and Life Sciences REC. The trial was approved by Wales NHS REC 3 (21/WA/0205), the Health Research Authority (HRA), Health and Care Research Wales (HCRW), university health board R&D departments in Wales, and schools in Wales and Scotland. Findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed open-access journals, at conferences and meetings, and online to academic, clinical, and educational audiences and the wider public. Trial registration number ISRCTN12437531. Strengths and limitations of this study MoodHwb was co-designed with young people with lived experience or at high risk of depression, parents/carers, and practitioners. MoodHwb is bilingual, personalised according to user needs and preferences, and has been developed in line with evidence-based approaches to support young people with depressive symptoms and their parents/carers, friends, and practitioners. Multiple methods will be used to collect data in a range of settings for the trial, including validated questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, a focus group, and Web/app usage monitoring. As this is a feasibility study, we will not be able to determine the effectiveness of MoodHwb; however, the findings will inform the design of a definitive effectiveness trial. Participants will not be blind to treatment allocation as this is not possible with an intervention of this kind.

Sensitivity of RT-PCR testing of upper respiratory tract samples for SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalised patients: a retrospective cohort study [version 2;peer review: 2 approved]

Background: This study aimed to determine the sensitivity and specificity of reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) testing of upper respiratory tract samples from hospitalised patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), compared to the gold standard of a clinical diagnosis. Methods: All RT-PCR testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in NHS Lothian, Scotland, United Kingdom between the 7 th of February and 19 th April 2020 (inclusive) was reviewed, and hospitalised patients were identified. All upper respiratory tract RT-PCR tests were analysed for each patient to determine the sequence of negative and positive results. For those who were tested twice or more but never received a positive result, case records were reviewed, and a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 allocated based on clinical features, discharge diagnosis, and radiology and haematology results. For those who had a negative RT-PCR test but a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, respiratory samples were retested using a multiplex respiratory panel, a second SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assay, and a human RNase P control. Results: Compared to the gold standard of a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, the sensitivity of a single upper respiratory tract RT-PCR for COVID-19 was 82.2% (95% confidence interval 79.0-85.1%).   The sensitivity of two upper respiratory tract RT-PCR tests increased sensitivity to 90.6% (CI 88.0-92.7%). A further 2.2% and 0.9% of patients who received a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 were positive on a third and fourth test;this may be an underestimate of the value of further testing as the majority of patients 93.0% (2999/3226) only had one or two RT-PCR tests. Conclusions: The sensitivity of a single RT-PCR test of upper respiratory tract samples in hospitalised patients is 82.2%. Sensitivity increases to 90.6% when patients are tested twice.  A proportion of cases with clinically defined COVID-19 never test positive on RT-PCR despite repeat testing.

Study Pre-protocol for "BronchStart - The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Timing, Age and Severity of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Emergency Presentations; a Multi-Centre Prospective Observational Cohort Study".

Background: Bronchiolitis (most frequently caused by respiratory syncytial virus; RSV) is a common winter disease predominantly affecting children under one year of age. It is a common reason for presentations to an emergency department (ED) and frequently results in hospital admission, contributing to paediatric units approaching or exceeding capacity each winter. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the circulation of RSV was dramatically reduced in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Evidence from the Southern Hemisphere and other European countries suggests that as social distancing restrictions for SARS-CoV-2 are relaxed, RSV infection returns, causing delayed or even summer epidemics, with different age distributions. Study question: The ability to track, anticipate and respond to a surge in RSV cases is critical for planning acute care delivery. There is an urgent need to understand the onset of RSV spread at the earliest opportunity. This will influence service planning, to inform clinicians whether the population at risk is a wider age range than normal, and whether there are changes in disease severity. This information is also needed to inform decision on the timing of passive immunisation of children at higher risk of hospitalisation, intensive care admission or death with RSV infection, which is a public health priority. Methods and likely impact: This multi-centre prospective observational cohort study will use a well-established research network (Paediatric Emergency Research in the UK and Ireland, PERUKI) to report in real time cases of RSV infection in children aged under two years, through the collection of  essential, but non-identifying patient information. Forty-five centres will gather initial data on age, index of multiple deprivation quintile, clinical features on presentation, and co-morbidities. Each case will be followed up at seven days to identify treatment, viral diagnosis and outcome.  Information be released on a weekly basis and used to support clinical decision making.

Differential expression in humans of the viral entry receptor ACE2 compared with the short deltaACE2 isoform lacking SARS-CoV-2 binding sites.

ACE2 is a membrane protein that regulates the cardiovascular system. Additionally, ACE2 acts as a receptor for host cell infection by human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 that emerged as the cause of the on-going COVID-19 pandemic and has brought unprecedented burden to economy and health. ACE2 binds the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 with high affinity and shows little variation in amino acid sequence meaning natural resistance is rare. The discovery of a novel short ACE2 isoform (deltaACE2) provides evidence for inter-individual differences in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and severity, and likelihood of developing subsequent 'Long COVID'. Critically, deltaACE2 loses SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binding sites in the extracellular domain, and is predicted to confer reduced susceptibility to viral infection. We aimed to assess the differential expression of full-length ACE2 versus deltaACE2 in a panel of human tissues (kidney, heart, lung, and liver) that are implicated in COVID-19, and confirm ACE2 protein in these tissues. Using dual antibody staining, we show that deltaACE2 localises, and is enriched, in lung airway epithelia and bile duct epithelia in the liver. Finally, we also confirm that a fluorescently tagged SARS-CoV-2 spike protein monomer shows low binding at lung and bile duct epithelia where dACE2 is enriched.

Selection for constrained peptides that bind to a single target protein.

Peptide secondary metabolites are common in nature and have diverse pharmacologically-relevant functions, from antibiotics to cross-kingdom signaling. Here, we present a method to design large libraries of modified peptides in Escherichia coli and screen them in vivo to identify those that bind to a single target-of-interest. Constrained peptide scaffolds were produced using modified enzymes gleaned from microbial RiPP (ribosomally synthesized and post-translationally modified peptide) pathways and diversified to build large libraries. The binding of a RiPP to a protein target leads to the intein-catalyzed release of an RNA polymerase σ factor, which drives the expression of selectable markers. As a proof-of-concept, a selection was performed for binding to the SARS-CoV-2 Spike receptor binding domain. A 1625 Da constrained peptide (AMK-1057) was found that binds with similar affinity (990 ± 5 nM) as an ACE2-derived peptide. This demonstrates a generalizable method to identify constrained peptides that adhere to a single protein target, as a step towards "molecular glues" for therapeutics and diagnostics.

Human embryonic stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte platform screens inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Patients with cardiovascular comorbidities are more susceptible to severe infection with SARS-CoV-2, known to directly cause pathological damage to cardiovascular tissue. We outline a screening platform using human embryonic stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes, confirmed to express the protein machinery critical for SARS-CoV-2 infection, and a SARS-CoV-2 spike-pseudotyped virus system. The method has allowed us to identify benztropine and DX600 as novel inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a clinically relevant stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte line. Discovery of new medicines will be critical for protecting the heart in patients with SARS-CoV-2, and for individuals where vaccination is contraindicated.

Tracheostomy for COVID-19: evolving best practice.

This article is one of ten reviews selected from the Annual Update in Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine 2021. Other selected articles can be found online at https://www.biomedcentral.com/collections/annualupdate2021 . Further information about the Annual Update in Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine is available from https://link.springer.com/bookseries/8901 .